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Research2026-10-1910 min read

The Execution Gap

Fifty minutes

In January 1991, Iraq began firing Scud missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia from mobile launchers hidden in the western desert. Over the course of Desert Storm it launched 88 of them. The coalition put enormous effort into hunting the launchers, and by most later accounts it destroyed almost none. Crews claimed dozens. The postwar review could not confirm that fixed-wing aircraft had killed a single real launcher rather than a decoy or a truck.

The problem was rarely detection. Launch plumes are hard to miss. The problem was time. Iraqi crews drove out, fired, and withdrew in ten to fifteen minutes. Targeting data often took about fifty minutes to reach the aircraft orbiting overhead. By the time a pilot was told where to look, there was nothing left to find.

Thirty-five years later the sensors are vastly better and the munitions are vastly cheaper, but the shape of that failure is still with us. Militaries have invested heavily in seeing targets and in deciding what to do about them. The segment between an approved decision and an asset moving has received far less attention. This paper calls that segment the execution gap, describes why it persists, and sets out what software has to do to close it.

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